Inside Out East: Monday October 13, 2003 http://www.bbc.co.uk/insideout/east/series4/great_storm.shtml

THE GREAT STORM Reporter uncovers the full story In 1703, a catastrophic hurricane ripped across East Anglia. It was the worst storm in British history and killed 8,000 people. But could global warming make tomorrow's weather even more violent? Inside Out investigates. It is 300 years since villages from Northamptonshire to Suffolk were decimated by 'The Great Storm'. But only now is the full story emerging. The first complete account of the impact of the storm on the East of England has just been written by Martin Brayne. The hurricane on 26 November 1703 tore across East Anglia, ripping up everything in its wake. Unlike today's storms, when we have advanced warning and can prepare for the worst, the poor souls of 1703 had no idea what was about to hit them. TORNADO & HURRICANE FACT FILE Hurricanes originate in the Tropics. A storm featuring winds of over 74mph is often referred to as a hurricane. A hurricane is a fierce rotating storm with an intense centre of low pressure. In south-east Asia they’re known as 'typhoons' and in the Indian Ocean, 'cyclones'. In 1998, Hurricane Gilbert produced 160 mph winds, killing 318 people, and devastating Jamaica. The United Kingdom is actually the World’s most tornado-prone nation. Wind speeds in tornadoes can vary from 72 to almost 300 mph. Fortunately, only 2 percent of all tornadoes have winds greater than 200 mph. Men and animals were lifted into the air Winds and rain lashed the entire country and floods were reported almost everywhere. Winds of up to 80mph killed 123 people and destroyed more than 400 windmills - many of which caught fire due to the friction of their wildly-spinning sails. Daniel Defoe, who travelled the country afterwards assessing the damage, reported that men and animals were lifted off their feet and carried for yards through the air and that lead roofs were ripped from one hundred churches. The Robinson Crusoe author reported seeing a tornado which "snapped the body of an oak". 15,000 sheep were drowned in floods near Bristol and 800 houses were completely destroyed. At Cambridge, falling masonry wrecked the organ of St Mary’s church, newly installed at a cost of £1,500 - and King’s College Chapel was badly damaged - pinnacles were toppled and much of the fine late medieval stained glass ruined. Author Martin Brayne has written a full account of the storm The death of a fleet - and a lighthouse Some 8,000 sailors perished as the storm decimated the British fleet. Hundreds of vessels were lost, including four Royal Navy men-of-war. One ship at Whitstable in Kent was lifted from the sea and reputedly dropped some 250 yards in land. Famously also, Henry Winstanley had the misfortune to be in the wooden lighthouse which he had designed on Eddystone Rocks of Plymouth on 26 November, and was killed. What has the future in store? While the events of 1703 may seem safely tucked away in the depths of history, more recent events have also savaged the British Isles. In 1987, winds gusting up to 115mph cut a swathe of destruction across London and the Home Counties. There were 19 deaths and the storms caused an estimated £1bn of damage. While not quite on the scale of the 1703 storms, this kind of extreme weather is enough to convince some people that the global warming is about to unleash a natural disaster of Biblical proportions on the South of England. Predictions by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia put global sea level rises between 12cm and 67cm by 2050. Many ships were lost in 1703 Parts of East Anglia as well as parts of the south east could end up under water The threat of rising sea levels is compounded by the fact that the UK is gradually tilting. The south east of the country is sinking while the north west is rising. This could make any future storms - and the resulting flooding - even more devastating. Martin Brayne says: "Rising sea levels caused by global warming, together with increased amount of building on low-lying coastal areas, mean that a storm as severe as the Great Storm would have even more devastating effects, [though] the Thames Barrier would protect London." What can be done? "By sharing technologies, experience and resources," says BBC Meteorologist Helen Willetts, "We can hopefully lower the greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the threat of global climate change. "Choose clean energy options where available, such as wind, solar and wave power, these do not emit greenhouse gases and are renewable. "Individually, we can recycle material, insulate our homes, take public transport and think about energy efficiency in the home." And it is clear that whatever can be done, should be done. One thing is for certain, nobody wants to experience the horrors of 1703 again!

Hallsands

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Destroyed houses at Hallsands (beneath the cliffs) and Trout's Hotel and the Coastguard Cottages (on the cliff)

Hallsands is a deserted village and beach in south Devon, England, in a precarious position between cliffs and the sea, between Beesands to the north and Start Point to the south.

Contents 1 History 2 Present Day 3 In music 4 See also 5 References 6 External links

History

The early history of Hallsands is unknown, but a chapel has existed there since at least 1506. The site of the village was located at a cave known as Poke Hole, and probably was not inhabited before 1600.^[1] The village grew in size during the 18th and 19th centuries, and by 1891 it had 37 houses, a spring, a public house called the London Inn, and a population of 159. Most residents of Hallsands at that time depended on fishing for a living, particularly crab fishing on the nearby Skerries Bank.

Hallsands in 1885.

In the 1890s, following a scheme proposed by Sir John Jackson, it was decided to expand the naval dockyard at Keyham, near Plymouth, and dredging began offshore from Hallsands to provide sand and gravel for its construction. Soon, up to 1,600 tons of material was being removed each day, and the level of the beach began to drop, much to the alarm of local residents.^[2] The Board of Trade agreed to establish a local inquiry in response to protests from villagers, who feared that the dredging might destabilise the beach and thereby threaten the village. The inquiry found that the activity was not likely to pose a significant threat to the village, so dredging continued.^[3] By 1900, however, the level of the beach had started to fall. In the autumn storms that year, part of the sea wall was washed away. In November 1900, villagers petitioned their Member of Parliament complaining of damage to their houses, and in March 1901 Kingsbridge Rural District Council wrote to the Board of Trade complaining of damage to the road. In September 1901 a new Board of Trade inspector concluded that further severe storms could cause serious damage and recommended that dredging be stopped. On 8 January 1902 the dredging licence was revoked. During 1902 the level of the beach recovered; however the winter of 1902 brought more storms and damage.
On 26 January 1917, a combination of easterly gales and exceptionally high tides breached Hallsands' defences, and by the end of that year only one house remained habitable. The villagers' fight for compensation took seven years.

Present Day

Hallsands in 1992

The site of the old village at South Hallsands, is closed, although South Hams District Council has built a viewing platform, which is accessed from Trout's Apartments (formerly Trout's Hotel) in South Hallsands.
The beach at North Hallsands, known locally at the time as "Greenstraight", is the only one remaining at Hallsands as the beach beside the village no longer exists having been removed in 1917 by the storm.
There are two houses that remain intact, although in summer the owners spend much time repairing the damage the easterly winds have caused over the winter.
In May 2012, an access road, viewing platform and two houses were affected by a 200 tonne landslide, leading to the houses being evacuated and the affected area cordoned off by police ^[4]. There was further damage to remaining houses at the site.

NASA - Ancient Dry Spells Offer Clues About the Future of Drought

NASA - Ancient Dry Spells Offer Clues About the Future of Drought

Ancient Dry Spells Offer Clues About the Future of Drought

12.05.11

 

Related briefing materials may be found here.

As parts of Central America and the U.S. Southwest endure some of the worst droughts to hit those areas in decades, scientists have unearthed new evidence about ancient dry spells that suggest the future could bring even more serious water shortages. Three researchers speaking at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco on Dec. 5, 2011, presented new findings about the past and future of drought.

New research indicates that the ancient Mesoamerican civilizations of the Mayans and Aztecs amplified droughts in the Yucatán and southern Mexico by clearing rainforests to make room for pastures and farmland. (Credit: Kayvon Sharghi, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center)

Pre-Columbian Collapse

Ben Cook, a climatologist affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York City, highlighted new research that indicates the ancient Meso-American civilizations of the Mayans and Aztecs likely amplified droughts in the Yucatán Peninsula and southern and central Mexico by clearing rainforests to make room for pastures and farmland.

Converting forest to farmland can increase the reflectivity, or albedo, of the land surface in ways that affect precipitation patterns. "Farmland and pastures absorb slightly less energy from the sun than the rainforest because their surfaces tend to be lighter and more reflective," explained Cook. "This means that there’s less energy available for convection and precipitation."

New climate modeling shows that widespread deforestation in pre-Columbian Central America corresponded with decreased levels of precipitation. This image shows how much precipitation declined from normal across the region between 800 C.E. and 950 C.E. It was during this period of time that the Mayan civilization reached its peak population and abruptly collapsed. (Credit: Ben Cook, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
› Larger image

Cook and colleagues used a high-resolution climate model developed at GISS to run simulations that compared how patterns of vegetation cover during pre-Columbian (before 1492 C.E.) and post-Columbian periods affected precipitation and drought in Central America. The pre-Columbian era saw widespread deforestation on the Yucatán Peninsula and throughout southern and central Mexico. During the post-Columbian period, forests regenerated as native populations declined and farmlands and pastures were abandoned.

Cook's simulations include input from a newly published land-cover reconstruction that is one of the most complete and accurate records of human vegetation changes available. The results are unmistakable: Precipitation levels declined by a considerable amount -- generally 10 to 20 percent -- when deforestation was widespread. Precipitation records from stalagmites, a type of cave formation affected by moisture levels that paleoclimatologists use to deduce past climate trends, in the Yucatán agree well with Cook's model results.

The effect is most noticeable over the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Mexico, areas that overlapped with the centers of the Mayan and Aztec civilizations and had high levels of deforestation and the most densely concentrated populations. Rainfall levels declined, for example, by as much as 20 percent over parts of the Yucatán Peninsula between 800 C.E. and 950 C.E.

Cook's study supports previous research that suggests drought, amplified by deforestation, was a key factor in the rapid collapse of the Mayan empire around 950 C.E. In 2010, Robert Oglesby, a climate modeler based at the University of Nebraska, published a study in the Journal of Geophysical Research that showed that deforestation likely contributed to the Mayan collapse. Though Oglesby and Cook's modeling reached similar conclusions, Cook had access to a more accurate and reliable record of vegetation changes.

During the peak of Mayan civilization between 800 C.E. and 950 C.E., the land cover reconstruction Cook based his modeling on indicates that the Maya had left only a tiny percentage of the forests on the Yucatán Peninsula intact. By the period between 1500 C.E. and 1650 C.E., in contrast, after the arrival of Europeans had decimated native populations, natural vegetation covered nearly all of the Yucatán. In modern times, deforestation has altered some areas near the coast, but a large majority of the peninsula’s forests remain intact.

"I wouldn't argue that deforestation causes drought or that it's entirely responsible for the decline of the Maya, but our results do show that deforestation can bias the climate toward drought and that about half of the dryness in the pre-Colonial period was the result of deforestation," Cook said.

Northeastern Megadroughts

Sediment cores from Piermont Marsh and other locations in the Hudson River Valley show major droughts have occurred in the Northeast. Credit: Dorothy Peteet, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
› Larger image The last major drought to affect the Northeast occurred in the 1960s, persisted for about three years and took a major toll on the region. Dorothy Peteet, a paleoclimatologist also affiliated with NASA GISS and Columbia University, has uncovered evidence that shows far more severe droughts have occurred in the Northeast.

By analyzing sediment cores collected from several tidal marshes in the Hudson River Valley, Peteet and her colleagues at Lamont-Doherty have found evidence that at least three major dry spells have occurred in the Northeast within the last 6,000 years. The longest, which corresponds with a span of time known as the Medieval Warm Period, lasted some 500 years and began around 850 C.E. The other two took place more than 5,000 years ago. They were shorter, only about 20 to 40 years, but likely more severe.

"People don't generally think about the Northeast as an area that can experience drought, but there's geologic evidence that shows major droughts can and do occur," Peteet said. "It's something scientists can't ignore. What we’re finding in these sediment cores has big implications for the region."

Peteet's team detected all three droughts using a method called X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. They used the technique on a core collected at Piermont Marsh in New York to search for characteristic elements -- such as bromine and calcium -- that are more likely to occur at the marsh during droughts.

Fresh water from the Hudson River and salty water from the Atlantic Ocean were both predominant in Piermont Marsh at different time periods, but saltwater moves upriver during dry periods as the amount of fresh water entering the marsh declines. Peteet's team detected extremely high levels of both bromine and calcium, both of them indicators of the presence of saltwater and the existence of drought, in sections of the sediment cores corresponding to 5,745 and 5,480 years ago.

During the Medieval Warm Period, the researchers also found striking increases in the abundance of certain types of pollen species, especially pine and hickory, that indicate a dry climate. Before the Medieval Warm Period, in contrast, there were more oaks, which prefer wetter conditions. They also found a thick layer of charcoal demonstrating that wildfires, which are more frequent during droughts, were common during the Medieval Warm Period.

"We still need to do more research before we can say with confidence how widespread or frequent droughts in the Northeast have been," Peteet said. There are certain gaps in the cores Peteet's team studied, for example, that she plans to investigate in greater detail. She also expects to expand the scope of the project to other marshes and estuaries in the Northeast and to collaborate with climate modelers to begin teasing out the factors that cause droughts to occur in the region.

The Future of Food

New modeling demonstrates that parts of Africa will be among the areas hardest hit by changes in agricultural productivity due to droughts driven by climate change. Here women in Senegal take a break from crushing millet. Credit: Molly Brown, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
› Larger image Climate change, with its potential to redistribute water availability around the globe by increasing rainfall in some areas while worsening drought in others, might negatively impact crop yields in certain regions of the world.

New research conducted by Princeton University hydrologist Justin Sheffield shows that areas of the developing world that are drought-prone and have growing population and limited capabilities to store water, such as sub-Saharan Africa, will be the ones most at risk of seeing their crops decrease their yields in the future.

Sheffield and his team ran hydrological model simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries and looked at how drought might change in the future according to different climate change scenarios. They found that the total area affected by drought has not changed significantly over the past 50 years globally.

However, the model shows reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand are projected to increase the frequency of short-term droughts. They also found that the area across sub-Saharan Africa experiencing drought will rise by as much as twofold by mid-21st century and threefold by the end of the century.

When the team analyzed what these changes would mean for future agricultural productivity around the globe, they found that the impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be especially strong.

Agricultural productivity depends on a number of factors beyond water availability including soil conditions, available technologies and crop varieties. For some regions of sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers found that agricultural productivity will likely decline by over 20 percent by mid-century due to drying and warming.

 

 

Adam Voiland and Maria José-Viñas
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

 

Flooding of the Fens in 1947. East Anglia

http://www.eafa.org.uk/catalogue/1174

Genre:

Amateur

The film begins with high-angle shots of flooded countryside, possibly Mr. Starling's own farm. A car is stopped at the edge of flood water that lies across the road. Shots of the Wash flooded between Suspension Bridge and Welney Village. This is the area where the New Bedford River, the Old Bedford River and the River Delph, all man-made drains, run parallel and within a few yards of each other. Osiers and farm buildings rise above the flood waters. A panning shot shows a deserted bicycle and broken fences. The tops of the banks of the drains are sometimes visible above the flood waters. There is a long shot of a steam pumping station alongside the New Bedford between Pymoor and Welney. Smoke is pouring from the chimney, suggesting that the station is at full capacity. Men stand on a sandbag jetty surveying the flood waters. Flood water pours through a gap in the bank and the men stand by, helpless. There are scenes of the flooding alongside the London to Kings Lynn railway line. A man watches the floods and there are shots of the flooding and of a road from the railway line. This may be where the railway line and a road cross at Station Farm, Ten Mile Bank. There are shots of the flood showing submerged farm buildings and the water level up to the lower windows of the houses. The flood water is pouring through the banks and over the road. This may be at Hilgay, where the River Wissey burst its banks. Men and troops are laying sandbags and there are brief night shots of the flood patrol. In daylight, there are further shots of the Pymoor to Welney Road and of the river bank, by Mr. Starling's farm. Residents gather by the edge of the flood, in front of houses. A military vehicle crosses the flood. There are further shots of the banks, re-inforced with brushes made from brushwood. A pumping sub-station is semi-submerged. There are shots from inside a larger pumping station and the film shows large pipes pumping the water into the river. There are individual pumps alongside the road. The final scenes show the damage lift by the floods. Pools of flood water remain and the land appears devastated, with debris lying around. There are many dilapidated farm buildings, brick structures as well as wooden ones. The final, brief scene shows tow boys on the beach.

Background Information:

Claude Starling farmed at Primrose Hill Farm, Pymoor. Local men formed groups to patrol the banks of the drains at night to give and early warning of and breaches.The winter of 1947 was harsh and heavy snow fell, lying on the ground until March. The thaw was sudden and combined with rain and high spring tides. This meant that the Denver Sluice and other sluice gates where the river was still tidal, could only be opened for short periods. The water couldn't get away. This was probably the most serious flooding known in the Fens. The Ouse Washes flooded on March 13th and the River Ouse at Ely burst its banks at Ely, flooding house and Ely Station. The railway was flooded to the North of Littleport. Many people had to by evacuated from their homes. On 16th March 100 mph gales were recorded. These brought down telegraph wires and trees. By March 20th waters were rising by 12 inches an hour. Some of the floods water remained lying on the land for two months.

The stark contrast of the Ungorogoro crater against the surrounding arid landscape begs the question as to how this remarkable oasis attracts so much rainfall.

In recent years the crater has suffered from severe droughts, followed by biting insects population explosions.

It is the forests that draw in the rainfall that feeds the lake and sustains the varied wildlife permanent residents.

Recent vegetation management (makes me shudder thinking about it) has been achieved using fires?  Mankind does not need to show nature how to manage vegetation. The evidence that we as a species are the anything but able to manage vegetation is reflected in the massive expanses of arid and semi arid regions that border the deserts we have helped to create.

Photgraphs of Ungorogoro Crater and surrounding area

Ngorogoro Crater Precipitation / rainfall

The Northern Parks of Tanzania is one of the last great refuges of the overland safari. Here our guests travel from camp to camp with a driverguide and a private safari vehicle, deploying their time along the way as they see fit. This tends to provide a much greater sense of adventure and a broader experience, since visitors are exposed to the whole of life between and through the parks, rather than being restricted to the areas immediately around the camps. It is a slightly more arduous experience, but should ultimately prove to be more rewarding for the more adventurous visitor.



Vehicles descending into the Ngorongoro Crater

7. Maasai interaction

Another real highlight of a Tanzania safari into the Northern Parks is the opportunity to interact with the local Maasai people. Many Tanzania camps have Maasai walking guides and some have a much deeper relationship with the local villages. Walking, hiking and trekking in the fabulous volcanic landscapes of Ngorongoro in the company of genuine Maasai warriors is a real privilege, one which substantially broadens and enriches the safari experience.



Maasai guide from Olduvai Camp in Southcentral Serengeti

BBC News - Drought fears for Midlands and south-west England

BBC News - Drought fears for Midlands and south-west England

31 March 2012 Last updated at 14:25

Drought fears for Midlands and south-west England

The River Kennet in Berkshire dried up in February

Continue reading the main story

Related Stories

• Drought conditions hit Yorkshire
• Drought set to hit food prices
• Drought remains despite wet June

The Midlands and south-west England are at risk of slipping into drought status, the Environment Agency warns.

The government agency expects drought to spread west across the country following the recent dry weather.
It comes amid reports that rivers are at their lowest levels since 1976, with a severe lack of rainfall not seen since the drought of 1921.
From Thursday, hosepipe bans are due to come into force in parts of south-east England and East Anglia.
Those areas are already officially in drought, while that status was declared in South and East Yorkshire earlier this week.
Two years of lower-than-average winter rainfall has meant rivers across the country have not been replenished.
The past week's hot weather saw 1mm or less fall across the whole country, the Environment Agency said in its latest Drought Management Briefing on Friday.
"Without substantial rainfall, the risk of drought could spread to parts of the West Midlands and south-west England," a spokesman said.
Streams 'drying' "It's important that we all use water wisely and use less of it. The amount we use at home and in our businesses has a direct affect on the amount of water available in rivers and for wildlife."
East Anglia saw two-thirds of the normal rainfall for March, with most falling in the first week. Wales had just 27% of its average monthly rainfall.

Continue reading the main story

Water saving tips

• Turn off taps while brushing teeth, shaving or washing
• Reuse bath water for house plants or the garden
• Collect water for plants while waiting for water to run hot
• Store water in a fridge to avoid running taps for cool water
• Wash fruit and vegetables in a bowl instead of under a tap
• Wash cars using a bucket, or just keep headlights, mirrors and windows clean

Most areas received less than half the long-term projections for average rain.

Two-thirds of rivers are at an "exceptionally" low level, while all rivers are experiencing below-normal flows.
The agency said small streams and ponds were drying up in Yorkshire, Oxfordshire and Herefordshire, affecting wildlife and fish.
Farmers in East Anglia are unlikely to be allowed to draw water from the ground or rivers to irrigate crops. Some are reporting crop reductions of between 20-50%, in vegetables like onions and carrots.
Extra capacity is being found in other areas of the country.
Environment Agency water resources head Trevor Bishop told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the situation was becoming more serious.
"If we see a continuation of dry weather, which is now very likely, these conditions will probably extend further westward over the next couple of months.
Infrastructure investment "Our rivers are really important, but also the water is needed for our businesses, people, the economy and for farmers. It's all very reliant on the winter rainfalls, to replenish the natural resources.
"For two years in a row, that simply hasn't happened at sufficient levels."
In recent months, the agency has had to move fish from where river levels are lowest.
Despite the drought, Mr Bishop said water companies were investing in reservoirs, desalination plants and schemes to move water around the country.
Water companies in England and Wales leaked more than 3.3bn litres a day in 2010/11, according to the regulator Ofwat.
Demand for water stands at around 17bn litres a day, according to industry body Water UK.

Andrew K Fletcher - FREdome Presentation - House of Commons - 7th March 2012 - YouTube

Andrew K Fletcher - FREdome Presentation - House of Commons - 7th March 2012 - YouTube

My full speech about how we can restore our planet by re-using the waste water from our homes to irrigate deserts at the House of Commons.